what you need to know ahead of the fed minutes. adam: stopping the muslim brotherhood in the attacks. adam: gene sperling will join us this hour. why that will boost the economy and cut the deficit. adam: we are guessing that lou dobbs has a little to say about this. adam: walmart is threatening to walk. possibly canceling plans to build in the nations capital. lori: let's head to the floor of the new york stock exchange.

market turning down here as we wait for the feds minute release. even if it were to post again today and be higher than yesterday, it is another record-setting day. we are watching oil which is a key story today. i am watching hewlett-packard very closely. this was a real ladder last year. the analysts are doing 180s as well. citigroup now put a buy rating on hewlett-packard. this comes on the heels of green

yesterday. this is why they are turning around. adam: thank you very much. breaking news. crude oil. phil flynn of price futures group is in the trading pits of this cme. >> i would call it a stunning drop in supplies. not only do you have the heating of tensions in the middle east and you have surging demand in the united states. everybody thought in america that we would not drive our cars anymore. gasoline demand surging. 4% above a year ago.

that is an incredible number. it is showing that demand is gas leak off of the code of louisiana. had they been able to plug the well? >> i think in the area of that area it is a concern. it is a very shallow well. the coast guard is in there right now. they have been cautious. i think that they will get it under control. adam: phil flynn from price futures group. thank you. lori: to the latest development in cairo. connor paolo continues his reporting.

>> the military cracked down continues as arrest ward go out. he is charged with violence that led to the massacre. it was the egyptian military that killed them. they also lost contact with some of the leaders in the last few days. after a lot of political wrangling, the transitional government is beginning to take shape. there is an interim president and prime minister. their job is to get this country back on track.

this country is still very divided. it does not look like they will get a lot of help from the muslim brotherhood. lori: thank you. please stay safe. adam: the conflict in egypt is not helping. well oiled jump of fact the performance of equities. how much of what we are watching and the price of oil do you think is reflected over the turmoil in egypt? should you be worried about that egypt should situation coming under control? >> short.

it has gone up at the same time the dollar has been increasing. you would have thought that the price would have stayed somewhat constraining. in our opinion, what could get worse before it gets better. you are seeing the u.s. dollar pullback. in terms of what that means for equity prices, we think for now it is not at a point where it will curtail growth. if it continues, you know, absolutely. at some point, it does start to hurt consumer confidence. adam: fixed income.

>> absolutely. if you look at what oil was doing .that long ago, it was kind of languishing. much like that, what you are seeing in china in the emerging markets is they are kind of down and out. people are starting to figure out, you know, maybe growth is not all that it is cracked up to be. if you were to see some kind of growth initiative out of china, in our opinion, emerging equities are probably the cheapest of the bunch. in our opinion, that could be the opportunity for the second half of this year. adam: that could actually be so bad that it is actually good.

they have reformed their policy over invoicing. we may be getting true numbers. >> i think that is most important is whether the growth that is coming out of china is sustainable or not. it was very much export driven. absolutely. if the data is getting a little bit more robust, that is always a positive. there is 20 of liquidity over there. what it allows is for the roof forms to continue. that will set them on a more sustainable path going forward. in our opinion, it is really an expectation.

adam: when they sneeze, the world catches a cold. thank you for joining us on markets now. lori: other headlines making news today. apple conspiring to raise the price of e-books. they agreed to work together to eliminate retail price competition in the e-book market and raise the price above $9.99. a little over an hour from now the senate agriculture committee will hold a hearing regarding the international deal. the ceo expected to be grilled on food safety and foreign ownership. the largest acquisition ever by a chinese company. a decades-old ban to allowed

hedge funds to advertise to the general public. they can only sell securities to those with a network excluding the primary residence which whittles down to only about 8% of americans. adam: new developments into the best a geisha and into the flight that crashed into san francisco. the questions around a mechanical issue. that is just ahead. lori: summercamp for moguls. who else is there. our very own dennis kneale. adam: losing half of its clients. lori: let's check metals. silver and copper are higher in today's trading session.

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we are learning that the pilot say that the automatic equipment failed. by that time they realized the plane was traveling below the targeted airspeed, it was too late. a spokeswoman says many questions remain. the crew was not tested for drugs or alcohol after the crash. lori: breaking news. we want to address your attention to the yield on the ten year treasury note. it looks like the demand for this paper was mediocre at best. the treasury yield is coming right in line with where the yield was trading. basically, treasuries selling off slightly.

there is so much confusion out there. let straight to nicole petallides. she is watching moves of the media dry and. nicole: each company is doing a big proposal. this is a week after they recently acquired 19 local television stations. it would allocate the companies newspapers. stay tuned for this story as this is a proposed spinoff. lori: thank you.

adam: we always like to make money and no better person to do that than charles payne. charles, you recommended this stop before. >> i did. i went to 87 and we are still in it. the stock has gotten absolutely hammered. here is the problem, in china they accused all of the baby formula companies of price-fixing. over the last week or so, almost all of them said okay, we will lower prices. they have a product. anyway, the bottom line is, the stock did not hit. it is oversold in my mind. still, china, last year it was $15 billion.

that is four times our market. it also helps when their number one milk producer just two years ago got caught with extensive talks and in mouth. i think it is a huge -- i think people should almost stop for at least two to three years. adam: firing back on claims of losing clients. she is facing criticism. the "wall street journal" reported whitney has lost half of her clients and is down to

only one full-time staff member. >> i would run a private firm privately. there were inaccuracies littered through the piece. adam: she opened up her back in 2009. lori: you are putting yourself out there. you are going to get criticized. it is great to hear. she is still somebody that wall street listens to. lou will join us later this

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♪ >> @23 minutes past the hour, hello everyone. i have your fox news minute. the boston bombing marathon suspect will be in court today. three people were killed in more than 250 injured in the april 14 blast. john kerry choked up about speaking about his wife's illness.

we hope she is improving. >> i want to thank everyone for their remarkable outpouring of good wishes. it has been very special. we are very humble by the expressions of support. >> those are your headlines. back to adam. adam: walmart will abandon plans to build a new store if the city passes a law forcing walmart to pay a certain wage. what is on the line here for walmart? >> we do not want this living wage that this new law would

impose. this new law would impose unforeseen costs on walmart. it would create in an even playing field. d.c. has been fighting to get a walmart in the area for about ten years. there is no walmart and a 9-mile radius. it also has cheap groceries. the people who do not want walmart are saying walmart puts their workers on the edge of poverty. this increase use the annual pay. even new york city has tried to

push. lori: 1 million in tax abatements. doesn't it make sense that they should be able to abide by part of that law? lori: i think that certain companies have the right to follow some of this. >> the living wage bill has been canceled at least three times. there has been a push to get a minimum wage bill in washington, d.c. the city council has failed each and every time. we will just possibly pull stakes. lori: thank you so much. always great to see you.

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adam: news you need to follow. oil extending gains, topping $106 a barrel for the first time since may of last year the climb comes after a surprise drop in inventories, strengthening demand and continuing unrest in egypt. time right now for stocks. nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. you're watching some earnings reports for us, nicole.

what have you got? >> that's right, earnings season. let's first look at yum brand down 1%. we'll hear from yum brand after the bell but we know over in china they have been hurt badly with sales over at kentucky fried chicken of the bird flu, avian flu. that hit their sales dramatically. it will be key to watch yum brand after the closing bell. family dollar came out with their numbers. that is is up 6.4%. they have done so well they plan on expanding, opening 500 stores. they did note customers are tell cautious but they did report a profit and seeing sales on the rise and expect sales to continue to rise. back to you. adam: thank you, nicole. lori: markets bracing themselves for the latest release of the fomc minutes less than 30 minutes from right now. keep it here on fox business. meantime investors will search for any clues to the fed's timetable for winding down stimulus. joining for this and more, matt mccormick and dan weibtrosky

direct to technical research from january any capital. i would love to start with breaking news of oil, matt, hitting $106 a barrel. what are your impressions? what does it say for the economy and future growth and implications for the market? >> i think it is more related to egypt. the rise in gas prices acts as regressive tax and slow the economy even more. i agree with your earlier point. all eyes are on the fed speak. they will see a hint for what he is advertising for a long time. you should expect him to taper. the market is addicted to liquidity. it will not like it and investors should be prepared for more volatility. lori: gas price is influencing i think the markets today. you said it does and acts like a tax. if it is just a egypt story. not a lot of production out of egypt. it is about production facilities through the suez canal? >> correct. lori: so will oil retreat? >> i think oil will retreat.

i think the economy is doing okay. i think any hints of weakness you would see moderation in oil prices. that would impact as a positive. i think it is up mainlily on geopolitical concerns. lori: dan what are your thoughts on the market? i know you're a technical analyst but what are the signals telling you? >> the signals are telling us from a long-term perspective we're shifting cycles here in the u.s. i would agree on a short-term basis the market is addicted to liquidity provided by the fed. you think what the market is discounting here, stock markets. russell 2000 broke out to new all-time highs. agains yesterday the s&p is encroaching on its all-time highs. this is coming at a point in the cycle where valuations are the cheapest they have been in 15, 16 years. at the same time we have a new demographic emerging here. we have improvements in the credit cycle. so while perhaps robust growth may not be so robust at this point i think the markets are acting as a leading indicator to

the next expansion cycle here in the u.s. so quite frankly from a technical aspect, from a historical aspect, we like what we see here. realizing that -- lori: what does that mean? does that mean we've seen the best gains? has this year been frontloaded for gains? do you see s&p building on its recent highs? >> well, what that means from a long term perspective is, that we're just getting started. you know, if you look back, the last four years, the dow is is up about 136%. that is cyclical bull market cycle lasting about four years. from a secular perspective on a long-term basis we think the stock markets could go much higher. lori: do you agree with that? do you agree with that? you're a little concerned about the fed thesis. >> i wish i could agree and i'm concerned about breadth from a technical perspective. i'm concerned about the debt negotiations. i'm concerned about weak earnings which many expect to be a difficult quarter. i'm looking from events from a

geopolitical perspective no one can predict. add fed tapering and debt negotiations. they didn't negotiate in august 2011, why should they do it now? most of the returns have happened at beginning of this career. i think it is time to be conservative, not aggressive. focus on once that -- lori: we know the federal research chairman will give a speech about the history of the fed. he will take questions. can he ease concerns plaguing the market and set it up and move on and we can have a clear, healthy fundamental stock market reacting what is going on in the economy? >> you're thinking logically. markets are not. when qe 1 and qe 2 ended the markets sold off. taking off about 85 trillion and the markets don't like it. the markets gone '84 or '94 where they went to the endgame is and rise in interest rates which is showing in the 10-year likely to go higher.

that has broad implications in the market refi. lori: we're seeing less refi-ing. >> everyone that wants to has already done it. lori: dan, give me investment advice in this climate? >> if we're right on the thesis you want to gravitate away from the interest sensitive sectors. we would be underweight utilities, probably reits, mlps, even staples. anything that produced that yield grab over the last year, year-and-a-half. we would be gravitating towards more pro-cyclical, more pro-growth areas on rising interest rates. we agree it will be rising interest rate market. the difference we think markets will act well during the that rising rate market. in that we like the banks, financials, industrials, transportation. within tech we would skew toward semis, more early cyclical plays. again small, mid-caps offers you growth, pro-cyclical type bias in the portfolio.

i don't disagree that over the short -- lori: i want for time i want to get matt's take and some of your investment ideas. i know in higher interest rate environment where do you go for safety? gold is crashed. >> i would agree with dan. i would avoided utilities and technology. we like technology as does dan. looking strong free cash flow. qualcomm increased their dividend 40% that is strong current future strength. i would avoided some of the bond surrogates and i would be focusing on companies that can deliver earnings no matter what. if you get a dividend growth aspect to it that is always a bonus. lori: bond fund outflows are eye poping. >> i think they will continue. lori: we'll have to follow up on that discussion. thanks so much. matt and dan, you guys were fantastic. thanks a lot. >> >> want to remind everybody to keep it hire on fox business for complete coverage of the fed minutes. the release is 2:00 p.m. and on after the bell at four p.m. bernanke's speech to the national bureau of economic research. adam: a lot riding on that as well. the white house turning

pressure on house republicans. gene sperling will join us with economic case for an immigration overhaul. lori: later lou dobbs on the odds of reform really getting through congress, immigration reform as the gop grapples with border security. speaking of treasurys let's show you where the 10-year note is trading. yield on 10-year after auction very poorly participated, very weak participation in the auction today. you can see treasurys selling off pushing the yield on the 10-year up to 2.66%. we're back after this. any last requests mr. baldwin? do you mind grabbing my phone and opening the capital one purchase eraser? i need to redeem some venture miles before my demise. okay. it's easy to erase any recent travel expense i want. just pick that flight right there. mmm hmmm. give it a few taps, and...it's taken care of. this is pretty easy, and i see it works on hotels too. you bet. now if you like that, press the red button on top. ♪ how did he not see that coming?

what's in your wallet?

>> i'm cheryl casone with your fox business brief. global demand for oil is expected to pick up next year rising about a million barrels a day but opec warns of political risk of supply moving forward. the organization the views underscore the shifting focus of the crisis in egypt and away from previous attention to ample supply from u.s. shale oil formations. ubs reclaiming the number one spot as the world's largest private bank. the swiss bank overtaking bank of america in the partnership annual ranging. morgan stanley and credit suisse rounding out the top five. they are a london-based management consulting firm. 'd of the release of latest minutes from the federal reserve june policy meeting. stay tuned to fox business. we'll give you live coverage in

just about 20 minutes from now. that's the latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper

adam: so the white house released a report arguing that the economic benefits of immigration reform bill already passed by the senate but yet to be decided on by the house. joining us gene sperling, director of the national economic council. we appreciate you being here. let's get right to it. the cbo said if we passed the immigration reform it will do wonderful things for gdp by 2033. much greater growth than we expect. the cbo in 1993 preticked budget deficit and revised it to 172 billion. it was actually, it was 450 billion-dollar deficit. point being that the c b of a gets it wrong. why should we believe the cbo numbers now? >> well, first of all i think

those numbers changed a lot because people engaged in serious deficit reduction back then. the reason why i would have confidence in this right now because it reflect as very widespread partisan agreement. for example, people like grover norquist, douglas holtz-eakin, former vice-presidential candidate paul ryan, former republican president george bush, all of them agree with the administration on the basic premise that comprehensive, common sense immigration reform will be good for economic growth, good for productivity, good for the economy. adam: how does it actually help? because the cbo actually said it would depress wages for a period of time? all these new people coming into the labor force? >> actually the cbo reports show that over 20 years it would increase wages by half percent. and, i think that, there's nothing in the cbo report to suggest that it would hurt the

wages of existing american workers who are working today and i think if you talk to many of our top ceos in our country they will tell you that having greater access to high-skilled immigration rather than displacing american workers makes the united states a more attractive place to locate their headquarters, locate their production and that by locating more services and production to the united states that is actually a net increase for jobs. that again is something you hear from top republican and top debt democratic economists and from this current democratic president as well as the former republican president bush. lori: what about the costs? 6 trillion in costs to american taxpayers? and the way it is being figured in it pushes it out to be attributed to the budget in 10 years and a lot of republican, senator david vitter, republican congressman from louisiana, says it is similar to obamacare and a little bit of a tricky accounting here? >> not at all.

this is the independent congressional budget office. this isn't a democrat or a republican organization. the independent congressional budget office found that comprehensive immigration reform would mean $850 billion of net deficit reduction over the next 20 years -- lori: what about social security benefits that you will have to pay out during that time period? >> and the chief actuary of the social security administration found that it would strengthen social security and that actually it would strengthen the solvency and length of social security by two years. let me explain why. first of all, it means that they predict over the next 10 years three million workers who are currently undocumented would now start paying payroll taxes. they would be adding to social security. secondly, you get younger workers in. that helps with our demographic challenge. so it's absolutely clear that this comprehensive immigration reform will actually strengthen the life of social security,

strengthen finances of social security and bring down our deficit. lori: that will cause a huge budget deficit. adam: why should we, mr. sperling, that the government will implement the immigration reform accurate when we can't bet get the health care up? "wall street journal" says they asked for delay because computers weren't ready and the guidelines for employers are in the ready. so why would that be -- >> i have to agree with your assessment of obamacare. individual mandate and exchanges that will cause competition already to go. the medicaid expansions. it is surprising that would be a criticism on the employer mandate because normally what you hear from business and the private sector is to be flexible, is to listen and to provide the, be agile, when 96% are already covering their workers around people say it would be helpful to comply with this new law to give a little bit more time i think it shows a flexibility government and administration willing to work

in that way. and again, on immigration, i want to again say, this is something, this type of comprehensive immigration reform has been supported by former president bush. it is, supported by our current president. some of the top republican economists that often are the leaders on the most conservative positions on fiscal and tax policies, like paul ryan, like douglas holtz-eakin, like grover norquist -- adam: i will add a name to that. rupert murdoch is in favor of immigration reform. on that note i've got to say thank you for joining us. it's a pleasure to have you here on fox business. gene sperling, national economic council director. lori: joining us now, lou dobbs. lou, you were listening to the interview. for me this is about, okay, we can throw out forecasts and prediction what is it will cost and what the economic growth potential is but we know that immigration reform does have up-front costs. >> without question. lori: those are finite. >> there are values and goals

that should be debated here. before people get a little carried away with sentimentality of amnesty if you will and try to push emotional arguments and both the administration and democrats from the senate are primarily doing. we've been down this road before. the american people are not fools despite what many political and business leaders apparently think. the suggestion that we would bring in 11.5 million immigrants who are here, here illegally, suddenly make them citizens or at least give them permanent residence and so without costs flies in the face of logic, reason and fact. as the heritage institute, as pointed out. heritage foundation studies make it clear what the costs are. you can take a midway point between cbo and heritage are saying and call that the number.

the number is chilling. secondly there are huge questions that haven't been answered. the american people as i said, are not fools. they know the questions have not been answered and they know the questions why they have not been because both government and political parties don't want them to be answered. a few questions, where did the number of 111.5 million immigrants come from? how do they know that? how can they talk about .3% gdp point is differential policy here between duane of eight and g 7 representation in the house or the bob goodlatte incremental approach which i think happens to be the right way to go? we are watching a president trying to scam the american people just as he did with obamacare. lori: this is a last-ditch effort here. he is officially a lame duck if he can't get the immigration through the house. >> he is a lame duck now, if i may say, lori. the man has no relevance on these issues. in point of fact he is not overtly guiding the process here.

he is not the primary advocate or spokesman. in fact, it has been the "gang of eight" in the senate that has taken primacy. this is a failure of leadership. it's a failure of trust on the part of our electeds and the -- elected officials and the american people. there have not been hearings except in the goodlatte process, chairman of the house judiciary committee. his approach on interior security, border security, e-verify. that is security for employers to understand who they are hiring and know that they are here legally. those are all conditions precedent to any immigration reform. i just want to point out, this study the white house releases call the economic benefits of fixing our broken immigration system. the fact is it is a broken border security and that's what has to be fixed first. lori: we have to leave it there. thank you. >> great to be with you. adam: thank you, lou. lori: thanks, lou. we are glued to the price of oil

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adam: we're counting down to the fomc minutes out at the top of the hour but can't take our eyes off the price of crude topping 106 bucks today. gray wolf execution partners mark newton on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what are you watching today? is it fomc minutes, is it oil? what has gotten your attention? >> i think this nervous anticipation we're nearing this inflection point with regard to fed policy people seemed to

pared down their positions and the market is quite quiet. crude is what people are watching and it is up almost $3 a barrel when you look at wti. it has a bit of a technical breakout last couple days. looks like we could get up to 110 a barrel. despite weak news, we're seeing some of these commodities surge. adam: mark, shouldn't people priced in tapering with regards to equities? >> that is difficult to say. a lot depends on the fed communication with everything and how effective it is. we haven't seen economic improvement really needed to suggest tapering should happen but you keep hearing rumbling this has to happen sooner rather than later. my thinking they will announce something, if not today but soon and it will take it off the table whether we have the economic improvement or not. adam: mark newton. pleasure. >> thank you. lori: fed minutes, are five minutes away. before that listen to this with heat wave causing record temperatures across much of the united states coca-cola's new ice bottle may not work out too well in america which is good

news since the new limited edition bottle will only be available in bogota, colombia. it will be samed like the soda maker's traditional glass bottle with the name etched in front. it comes with a red rubber strap that doubles as bracelet to help prevent frozen fingers. new details about taper plans? they are minutes away. tracy and ashley will have details plus your market reaction. can't afford to miss it. ll. to treat my low testosterone, ll. my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied

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tracy: welcome back. i'm tracy byrnes. ashley: i'm ashley webster. waiting on the fed. wall street is eager to hear what the fed said behind closed doors about, oh, yeah, tapering those bond purchases. the fed minutes and market reaction just moments away. tracy: and serious concerns about china's takeover of

american pork giant smithfield foods. now a senate committee wants answers from smithfield's ceo. we'll get them this hour. we're live from capitol hill ahead. ashley: a new controversy over planned capital rules for big banks. but first -- tracy: peter barnes, what have you got for us? >> tracy, the minutes from the june policy meeting show some fed members definitely interested in dialing back quantitative easing this year. in fact, the minutes say specifically about half of the fed members want to do it this year. many others it says want to continue quantitative easing into 2014 but let's get to some of the text here. the minutes repeat the obligatory line at that tapering will be data dependent for these fed members especially on job creation. quote, many members indicated further improvements in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases, tapering there. some added that they would as well need to see more evidence

that the projected acceleration in economic activity would occur before reducing the pace of asset purchases. but here's the key line. several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases would likely soon be warranted in light of the cumulative decline in unemployment since the september meeting, september 2012, last year, when they launched the latest round of qe, and ongoing increases in private payrolls which had increased their confidence in the outlook for sustained improvement in labor market conditions. and then the text shows that they actually polled the members of the fed and about half of the participants said, that they would likely, they would likely want to end, start to taper this year many said in 2014. now, we are going to be hearing from federal reserve chairman ben bernanke here in the 4:00 hour. he has a speech on the history of the fed.

there will be 30 minutes of qa and between economists here. we hope one of them will ask him if the current pace of the ongoing increases in payrolls, the 200,000 a month we've been get something enough to, to start tapering later this year. ashley and tracy. tracy: peter barnes. ashley: thank you, peter. tracy: in cambridge, massachusetts. thank you very much, peter. the big point i guess was it will soon be warranted. that's the big change in language. ashley: we had nearly 200,000 job growth for three months in a row. peter is pointing out, essentially half of the fed saying that maybe this year would be appropriate to start easing back or pulling back on those bond purchases. >> that's something we've been hearing, right? either by september or december they will make some sort of announcement that it's coming. ashley: the dow is up 12. shooting around. up nine. it is kind of just floundering for now obviously as everyone digests exactly what the fed was talking about behind closed doors. let's get the market reacting to these minutes. we have team coverage.

nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. jeff flock in the pits of the cme. let's get started with nicole. nicole? >> the market is reacting heavily to the fomc minutes, ashley and tracy. it is here on the big board. all major averages are now in the green. dow jones industrials posting an up arrow up .1 of a percent. u.s. dollar continues to move to the downside as gold ticks higher. gold is up about 10 bucks. treasurys paring their losses. you are seeing moves on the big board pertaining what we're seeing from the fomc it is interesting peter noted about half the fed members are interested in tapering. however we'll continue to watch job creation and payrolls and how they're added. whether or not that is enough to really have the fed make the move. a lot of them say they want tapering. are they actually going to make that move? will that actually be this year? you can see that intraday chart. a huge spike there for the

dow jones industrials as we continue to move here. the question as we break to new session highs, that is worth noting too. right now the dow jones industrials are up 37 points moving to session highs. worth noting that the nasdaq composite at these levels would now today close at highest levels since 2000. back to you. ashley: yeah, interesting. u.s. treasury prices also turning higher after those fed minutes. tracy: all right. well oil, trading near a 14-month high on inventory data out this morning. let's get a check what oil is doing following these fed meetings. jeff flock in the pits of the cme. you have china slow down, supply is down and conflicting things going on in the oil market. >> although in some ways it is a perfect storm in the increase in this. i'm looking still up over $3. i want to get to scott shellady real quick. that is the story all day today, correct oil? has anything in the fed minutes changed that? >> not at all. the oil is on the decline again

today, not again today but that gives oil more upside. what is significant we yesterday saw the dollar, really, real strong and oil can make those gains? that tells me there are scaredded shorts out there. >> any other headlines from the fed minutes had to say? any surprise to you at all? >> no, i don't think there was any real surprises out there. but we needed to get clarity what we thought they were thinking. stocks like it. bonds like it. >> any end to oil? i'm looking here it, was off the highs a little bit best announcement and now we're back at $3 plus again. >> that will give oil room to the upside. 110 is my upside. they think the world can't afford really high oil. that is tax we pay every day at the pump. there will be a top short term somewhere. >> leave you with a gold board that is pretty flat. no big change as a result as well. you have a big crop report tomorrow lastly. >> gold, it is not going to be inflation problem anymore. i think we have a deflation problem. that is why gold will have a

hard time getting out of bed. crop report tomorrow could make us have tighter corn supplies. >> we'll be on the farm tomorrow, guys. we'll give you information from washington. anything like the shock the oil market got today from the energy department it will be quite a day tomorrow. tracy: it will. you know what jeff? scott makes a great point. what we heard is confirmation. that is why the market is pretty happy. >> that's true. tracy: could happen later in the year. at least not happening today. jeff flock and scott shellady, thank you both. ashley: joining us with analysis of the minutes, former fed economist steven ol' lander. with aei. my apologies. what do you think first blush and obviously we're digging into details a little bit more but anything in here that surprises you? >> actually the first thing that surprised me was in peter's reading of the statement he said several members the committee thought that tapering would be warranted soon. several means it is not very many because this is a committee

that has 19 people on it. several means a very small minority thought that tapering would be warranted soon. i actually understand why the market felt that this was a reassuring statement. tracy: i thought he said actually half of the participants polled likely want something to happen this year, but could be -- >> i think he said -- tracy: could happen, could not happen. i think that is possible too, right? we still have no definite day. we just know it's not today so we can move on. >> but that is absolutely true. but the minutes of the very long statement and peter actually referred to two-pieces of information about the data, the tapering. the first was the comment about several participants thought it could happen soon. tracy: right. >> as i mentioned i think that really is a pretty doveish statement. then he mentioned that half thought the tapering would happen this year and half next year. that also is somewhat doveish because the chairman's press conference really pointed more to the second half of this year

as the time for the tapering to happen. and now we're learning that a half thought really next year. ashley: steven, as i'm reading more of the headlines here, it said a number of the members wanted to emphasize the distinction between decisions about slowing bond buying and future rate hikes. this has been a problem, hasn't it? ben bernanke has said, look tapering down mean rate hikes. but the market hasn't taken it that way? >> exactly. well, this is one of the fed's chief communication challenges is to try to get market to understand that policy is operating on two tracks. just because they start tapering on the asset purchases, doesn't mean that the fund rate is going to be lifted anytime soon. the market really had a hard time understanding these are really separate levers of policy. tracy: right. that's a valid point that needs to continue to be made. talk about the data points though. this notion that jobs is going to be a data point for the mortgage-backed security purchases. where do we get that number?

as ashley said earlier is 200,000 jobs a month to say, hey, we're off the to races? >> i think it's enough provide the unemployment rate stays stable or edges down. i think it would be serious enough tore the fed to consider tapering in september. that is enough. tracy: that is what we're hearing in september, the big 9/18 meeting, right? >> yeah. ashley: you think the number, once it drops below 7%, steven, that's a clear sign? are you of the mind they will stick to that target? >> i think they're trying to give themselves some leeway so they're not saying 7% is an absolute hard target. that once they hit and qe program will be over. but rather that's roughly the neighborhood that they're looking for, the unemployment rate to get to in order for them to feel like they made enough progress on labor market conditions to rely just on the fund rate being low and not to

have to buy more assets. it will be a judgmental decision but i think they wanted to get a number out there that the market could focus on. that is the 7% number. >> steve, i have to ask before he go about inflation again. where do you think the fed is sitting with all this? it hasn't surfaced yet. i keep saying yet. i have to believe it is coming but i could be very wrong? >> well, we really haven't seen it. i think the fed's chief concern is inflation being too low. tracy: yeah. >> reflecting the recession in europe and also the slow growth in asia. so international conditions are, really relatively weak and so, i think the greater concern for the fed right now is having inflation drift further below its 2% target. that is one of the things they will have to assess going into the fall whether they decide tapering is appropriate. tracy: interesting. very uncertain times. ashley: steven, thank you so much, with aei. great analysis.

we appreciate that. we should mention treasury prices are up. gold moving higher after the fed minutes, up 11, 12 bucks. keeping an eye on the reaction. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke will give a speech at the national bureau of research conference less than two hours from now at 4:00 p.m. eastern time and taking questions from the audience and we would be very interested to hear what mr. bernanke has to say. stay with us for coverage of that with fox business. liz claman and i will keep track of what mr. bernanke is having to say. tracy: yeah. wall street totally digesting these fed minutes. market is up only 10 minutes. we'll track the market reaction. here we are, up 13. it is moving doing something. ashley: in the green. american legend smithfield foods about to be taken over by the chinese. congress looking over this deal closely in a hearing this hour. we'll have details from capitol hill straight ahead. first talking about the rising oil inventories. the unrest in the middle east.

look at this. now we have the fed minutes and we're up $2.05 in crude, up to $106 a barrel. we'll be right back. friday night, buddy.

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ashley: we have breaking news for you. the owner of that runaway train that exploded in a quebec town said that he believes the company employee on site did not follow the company's brake policy. rail world chairman ed burkhardt says he believes the train derailed due to break failure and that he believes it's questionable that the train engineers didn't set the brakes correctly. he also believes engineers did not set the right amount of hand brakes for the train. of course that train ran away and plowed into that small town in quebec. the loss of life and everything, it is devastating. obviously the investigation goes on. but that is the latest development in that story. tracy: imagine if it turns out to be man error, human error? ashley: we'll see. tracy: well, let's talk about these markets now. up 40 points. charles payne is here. fed minutes released. markets like them. do you? >> yeah, i think they, they're

what we expected. you know the good thing was, is last week's. i think last week's,it was a hok that really told the tale. because general consensus on wall street was, okay, tapering will happen in september. the fed ill purchase maybe 20 to 30 billion less. seems like wall street was okay. wednesday, last wednesday we were down, closed higher of the last friday we were down, closed higher. we were light volume sections. they said something. this week with the best four-day string i think we'll had all year long. the last guest, what i'm looking at i think he hit the nail on the head. we have been february, talking about tapering, we treated tapering the same way markets always treated raising interest rates. it is two dingtive things. ashley: yeah. >> they can't buy $85 billion worth of junk every month. ashley: that was my question to him. bernanke has had a really hard time getting that distinction, tapering does not mean rate

hikes. >> i think not only now, i think, he made that distinction and i think wall street has come to accept it. this is page 6 of the minutes. ashley: yeah. >> they're looking at 2014-2015 to strengthen further. quote, supported by accommodative mon tourry policy. these low rates, these zero percent financing. ashley: that is not going anywhere. >> that is not going anywhere. the idea they will continue to buy $85 billion worth of assets, quote, unquote, assets -- tracy: needs to be clear there is almost two different parameters. interest rate movement has different parameters than the mortgage-backed security purchasing. it is that separate. i think we, need to keep making that point. ashley: i think we will because, you know, imagine when we do get to that argument and whether it is next year or the year after. tracy: right. >> the rate hike thing will take us back to 1994 when alan greenspan left rates a at least a year too long too long.

had an epiphany. raised them. 25 points. this is not enough. he panicked. stock market got hit. the market was sideways. but after that the market took off unbelievably for the next five or six years. whatever ben bernanke was trying to do, i think it might be finally working with respect to communicating to wall street. ashley: very good. >> we'll see. ashley: we'll see. thank you, charles. it's a little bit quarter past the hour. time to get back to nicole on the floor of the new york stock exchange. dow is up 23, nicole. >> traysy, ashley, market reacting to fomc minutes. talk about potential tapering and cutting back on the bond buying. the dow jones industrials are up 25 points. we moved quickly to session highs. the dollar is really something to watch here as it continues to lose ground against the euro. that is something i'm watching

closely. gold is popping up 14 bucks. all three major averages are putting in gains and watching the dow which makes it five straight days of gains in a row. blackberry, mr. heins is working hard to turn the company around. he is beefing up cash. plans to offer more products in the blackberry operating civil. stockholders are frustrated. three years lost value and another losing year so far for blackberry. ashley: interesting stuff. nicole, we'll be back with you probably at bought of the hour. thank you. tracy: you remember the irs "star trek" conference with the real bad video? the house republicans want to ban anything like that from ever happening again. thank god. by the way they want to cut billions from the agency's budget. elizabeth macdonald with the story. ashley: beam me out of here. the dollar now getting progressively weaker as you can see against all the currencies

up against the dollar including the euro hit a three-month low. earlier this week, u.k. pound trying to get back to the 1.50 mark. we will be right back. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. th scottrade's smart text, i can ickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company."

>> 20 three minutes past the hour, hello, i'm julie anirvan

banerji with your fox news minute. accused boston bomber, dzhokhar tsarnaev has arrived in boston on his arraignment on 30 charges including a weapon of mass destruction. three people were killed and 160 injured in the april 15th blast. in quebec the head of the train company in the fiery oil derailment said it is questionable that the employees properly set the brakes before saturday's disaster. 15 people were killed and a large part of the canadian town was destroyed after a the train went downhill and exploded. nsa leaker edward snowden said he never gave things to the russian or chinese governments. glen greenwald of "the guardian" newspaper said snowedden vehemently denied giving information to moscow or beijing. thatthose are your headlines. back to ashley and tracy. ashley: julie, thank you.

the republicans in congress want to cut the irs budget by 25%. with more on the story elizabeth macdonald joins us with emac's bottom line. >> they want to drop it down to $9 billion for fiscal 2014. that is lower than the 11.9 billion than fiscal 2013. thed if wants 12.9 billion. representative nita low which waying in. a democrat on house appropriations committee. not like hearing what the gop and house budget are doing. here is nita lowey. >> cud cutting the funding to the irs is totally irresponsible. if you don't like the work of the irs, if you think you can improve upon it, then, suggest that we replace those who ran it and caused part of these scandals. that is in fact what the administration did. >> the republican chair of the

house appropriations committee, hal rogers, disagrees with congresswoman nita lowey. here is hal rogers. >> this is a way for the irs to show us that they can do their job albeit at less cost. >> here's what the bill would seek to do in cutting the irs's budget back. again they're very upset. of course house gop members of the appropriations committee. according to sources there, with irs targeting of the tea party and conservative groups. ashley: now possible yeah. >> possibly five irs offices across the country in california and baltimore, maryland, not just cincinnati and possible connections to the washington, d.c. irs office. look what they're talking about in the bill. in other words they want to restrict irs targeting. unless they see that the irs is implementing the treasury ig recommendations, until they see the irs doing that, this bill would hold back 10% of the funding.

10%. it also seeks to ban conferences where they were basically line dancing. that $4 million spent on the one conference which caused so much controversy. ashley: yeah. >> bonuses and videos like the "star trek" video you guys were showing. it would force the irs to disclose the way irs uses its funds and look at that, stop the irs from implementing health reform. sources in washington say it is unlikely this bill will see the light of day. probably face a lot of democrat opposition. but this is a, again, basically the gop, hey, putting down a marker. we're still upset with irs about not cleaning shop. tracy: you can cut funds six ways till tuesday, if they are going to target, they will target. you can target on a shoestring budget. ashley: that is true too. tracy: that will not solve the problem at the end of the day. >> it could put a chill on those activities. ashley: that's true. >> you're right, tracy. who is to say because we've been seeing activity in, documents i've seen, foia requests shows irs activity was going on even

before hoover. tracy: there you go. ashley: political weapon. >> whether or not holding back fund will change things, remains to be seen. tracy: you're right. certainly makes people think. >> yep. ashley: thanks very much. elizabeth macdonald. tracy: stocks were building some gains. we're only up 15, 16 points right now. the fed minutes start to sink in. everyone is analyzing them. we'll talk to an analyst who says the market's wildness is not going away anytime soon. ashley: plus the ceo of smithfield foods is about to take the hot seat on capitol hill over the pork giant's controversial sale to china. that story is coming up next. but first let's take a look at some of today's winners and losers. green across the screen on major markets. here are some winners on the s&p. we'll be right back.

♪ ashley: 90 minutes until the close. major markets generally unchanged after all of the sudden downward movement after the release of the fed movements. a split between the gain in decline. on the upside from h-p, cisco, merck, bank of america on the lower side. nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange with the details. >> reporter: i know that you said little change, but we did have some volatility right after the minutes. the one thing that is worth noting is that that doubt is back in positive territory, while not significant, it's only ten points. what it does is pass on to the four days of gains that we have seen so far. now many will have a fourth. we will see. let's take a look at new skin enterprises, stock up 18%. yes, 18%, a huge move moving the

company's stock to an all-time high after they are seeing great profits. also expanding abroad, serious gains in china and hear indian -- america. you can think of anti aging. those of the divisions are there doing incredibly well. as a result you're seeing that in the winner's market. jumping on board cannot. ashley: thank you so much. tracy: well will the fed minutes and corporate results mean for stocks? moving forward, joining us now, senior equity analyst. i'm sure you've heard by now, you digested, like all of us. anything new and interesting? >> no. the dual mandate from the fed stands. employment is important, as is, you know, they touch down a little bit of inflation. i still look at inflation and lori. we have disinflation.

that may keep them buying bonds for the foreseeable future. you will see. tracy: us talk about here at home. we basically had a subpar economic growth. slowing corporate profit. kind of uncertainty. we know it's coming and we don't know wind. what does that mean goingfor co? >> well, it means that economically speaking the u.s. is the best in kind of a shabby neighborhood. but that means that our companies are still growing. i'm really looking forward to being able to go through and earning season and here in my company say we're going to grow our topline in the future. but i have not seen that. so -- that's what i'm looking for in this earnings season. that being said, were the best place to invest right now if you look around the world. tracy: and speaking of the world, of multinationals are going to be probably talking about issues they had with china we will hear that a lot in the

guidance. how much further do you think that will play into the corporate psyche? >> it's going to be a good year, maybe. the government really has gotten down on expansion of business. technology is feeling that as well as maybe some of our industrials. so i would be cautious if a company as a lot of dependence on china at this point because i don't know that we're going to see a lot of growth of that area tracy: from molly yard tech is one of the areas where we will be somewhat disappointed. get it on your list of picks. how come? >> well, intel is a special situation. tech is on our list because it is on loved. long-term investors, value investors. buy low and sell high. it sounds trite, but it's hard to do. look for things that are out of

favor. if a lot of companies are having issues that you think can be repaired in the next 35 years you should look in that area for some good companies to pick up. that's a were doing. tracy: that is what you're doing with ibm. going to get it by china, but they will overcome long-term. >> absolutely. we are looking at ibm, see what the report. and we are really looking forward to what they will say about the future and especially the future in their emerging market. that's interesting, and based upon that we might have some shares. we will see what the future brings. but we are very optimistic that the mobile strategy is actually going to be able to get traction in the next 18 months, and we are going to be able to see phones and tablets with intel inside. tracy: good stuff. she likes commodities which are a tough place to be for a value

investor. >> there really are, and i don't know really how to value them. they look intriguing. they live above. tracy: some days. i don't know. i still think gold is a doorstep. thanks you so much. a block of gold to keep the door open. breaking news. crude prices soaring. $106.502 per barrel. today's jump of nearly 3%, oil prices at their highest level since may of 2012. as you know, we will feel that at the pump. ashley: a senate hearing just getting under way will examine the proposed sale of smithfield foods to a chinese company. rich edson has been all over this story with the latest. >> reporter: there are concerns about food safety, merging american and chinese corporate culture and the sale of another iconic american companies to of foreign

interest. in this case, smithfield the chinese company. they say the acquisition gives them and their suppliers better access to the world's largest pork market. this would be the largest deal involving a chinese company buying an american one, the senate agricultural committee says it is examining the acquisition as well as reviewing the federal government's process to ensure safety in the american food supply for any future deal. analysts say that the u.s. can expect more chinese investments in the united states in a statement the u.s.-china business council says chinese investment in the united states will certainly increase as chinese economy grows. bringing the company into the market. and it will help foster international best practices in china. the deal is up for review before the committee on foreign investment in the united states. contained within the treasury department. it can block international deals if they present a risk to national security.

in a letter the committee senate is still reviewing the smithfield deal and will offer a private briefing for the senate agriculture or committee after this hearing which is a started. back to you. ashley: we should mention the dow turning negative. we saw quite a bit of volatility that nicole petallides was talking about just after the fed minutes, but now we are just -- in positive territory right now. tracy: well, on deck blasting new rules for america's biggest banks, the financial services rounddtable chief former governor says make no mistake. they will hurt the economy, and he is here next. ashley: first, let's get that truck -- check of the treasury's that ten year up just one basis point. meanwhile, on the 30-year, up two basis points. we will be right back. ♪ ♪

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♪ ashley: solar regulators are backing a plan that would force the nation's biggest banks to finance operations with more equity and less debt. the proposals designed to make banks more financially sound, but critics claim it can ultimately hurt the u.s. economy. joining us now, ceo of financial services round table and former minnesota governor. thank you for joining us.

you are a critic of these rules. why? >> expressing concern on behalf of the american finance industry for this reason. the levels that were announced are about twice as high the rest of the world. we favor more equity. however, there is a tipping point. if you go too far the trade-off is that it stifles lending and has less money available for lending and economic growth. the recent proposals of gotten -- ashley: does the doubling add more protection are not? ultimately does it? >> of course you are trying to strike a balance between more protection and doing things that allow reasonable lending and economic growth. if it's a bell curve effect, most of the people were knowledgeable cities prole go

too far. it's nearly double the standard that has been stepped under basel three and much of the developed market world. >> very complicated. you have to overcome all of that. more desirable. don't go so far that you suffocate lending. ashley: do you think that banks after we back off of the recession and not happen with mortgages they go bad, that they have actually gotten bigger and more interconnected which is strange when you think of what happened.

back to a point where the big banks are bigger and perhaps rare even more exposed. >> at the same time we don't want to tie the american banking institution hands behind their back because that's what you're 37 largest banks in the world ammoniac and float our american banks and if you do things to stifle them they cannot compete globally. we want to make sure not so much that the government is telling businesses what size they can be, but that proper safeguards are in place in case one of these institutions tumble. that is what dodd-frank was all about. that's what all the new regulations are about. tremendous progress. orderly liquidation that take the lessons and the problems of the crisis. ashley: you mentioned you

concerned lending will drive up. >> to put a quantitative number on it that's about $90 million. holder raise the amount as opposed to applying it in the form of equity. that is a significant number. you can get some -- complete security if you have them hold everything in cash. assuming they will deploy some of it, you have to be willing to assume reasonable risk. we don't want wrestle -- reckless risk. ashley: reasonable risk is the key expression. thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate. >> you're welcome. thank you. tracy: a quarter till. time for stocks. mark newman joins us. we have of 40-. swing since the minutes came out. give us of 1-minute synopsis.

>> the bottom line is the3 consensus was not nearly as hawkish. many think denny's to be a lot more economic improvement before tapering can start. we don't really know a whole lot. we will have to wait until he speaks after 4:00 p.m. to gain more. one thing we have seen is a pullback. that's something that has changed, but stocks are pretty much unchanged. we have seen basically movement of the last nine and 11 days. of over 600 points, just for a half percentage short time, so it is natural to think that we saw last year which has become the consensus. a lot of people think that we should which is what happened the last three times that the minutes have been released. may come april, and february. tracy: these minutes in particular, we did not learn all heck of a lot. and so we are back to square one. >> it's all about liquidity. earnings are not all that important, but seasonality

suggests the latter half of july should be somewhat bearish. the market actually pulls back 19 times and been up 11. and as a 62 percent chance that the market by and large should weaken in the latter half of july. tracy: take that to vegas. thank you. ashley: interesting, the sell-off of the dollar. a lack of a clear timetable and essentially the timing remains open was a bit of a disappointment. the sell-off in the dollar which was interesting. spinoffs, takeovers, breakups. the legendary media conference in sun valley, idaho. the state is famous for bit -- potatoes. dennis kneale live with the inside scoop next. tracy: first attack let's take a look as of the day's winners and losers on the nasdaq. prime material. up 3 percent. we will be right back. ♪

♪ ashley: well, it's a who's who in idaho, the biggest names in media are in attendance at the allen and company and -- allen and company media conference. dennis kneale live from sun valley with the latest. >> reporter: hello. spinoffs, takeovers, breakups, and the air. the try be in says it ill take all the newspapers that nobody wants to buy the right price and sprint -- split it into a different company. that just happened. time warner is getting rid of magazines. the big question is who is next. this morning howard stringer they're under pressure test spin off their it's in the business.

being a media executive, he tells me nothing. twitter. will he do an ipo? he just fell on his own sword and eliminated co-ceo. waiting for oracle. his former mentor buying that company for a little extra growth. and hewlett-packard, will they spin off the big giant printer business. too big to manage? talking to eric schmidt. takeovers shaking of the industry. i run into him at about midnight and he wants to take over time

warner cable, a $32 billion deal. but they are said to be year. so far no word of any meetings between them. it is interesting that the time when others are looking at getting smaller committees looking at getting bigger. on friday, a rare thing. the cable legend, rupert barry diller, the fear some hollywood turned internet executive. all three together on a panel on friday talking to all of these insiders. that should be quite an historic gathering of three big players. back to you. ashley: a very big indeed. even if it is at midnight in a bar. those are the best ones. all right. well, back in the news again. he may have made millions offices of a ponzi scheme.

he did not spend a lot of it on guard. the collection of art will be auctioned off later this year by some of these in new york. highlights include this set of 1973 lithographs. that's pretty cool. that series was made in addition of 100. actually all in the makes. proceeds will help pay back the victims. bigger, more expensive pieces. ashley: so worried about china hurting your investments? does the payment in a fox business exclusive. countdown to the closing bell is next. ♪ ♪

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liz: big band gets ready to chime in. the fed chairman sounds off. the backdrop of rising interest rates. investors worrying about higher rates. we have to top bond experts thaa will name their worry level. media mogul blues up. a big media and business chieftains for their annual powwow. it is oh, so explosive. fox business is right there, and we have the inside scoop on who is meeting whom and what they're really talking about. and the apple revolution. five years ago apple launched a new era and mobile computing. today the economy has ballooned into a multibillion-dollar power aroused creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. can apple stay ahead?